Q4 Video Special - Credit, Risks, & Year End

HVP x Bear Traps Report on Schwab Network

First aired October 6, 2025 at 4:30pm EST

Better late than never - our September Risk Dashboard post is a few days late, but we’re going to roll with it as this Schwab Market Overtime special was recorded on September 30th. Our usual monthly format will be back later this month. We’ll let the video speak for itself, but for your reading pleasure we have a handful of the charts, indicators, and news items referenced in the video reproduced for you below.

Special thanks to the production team at Schwab Network, Sam Vadas as host, and our friend, best-selling author and strategist Larry McDonald for teaming up to make this special happen! Enjoy!

Repo 105 - what is it? Explanation from Wharton

First Bands Term Loan - a chart of one of the struggling business’ many debt instruments to give a sense of the stress in some pockets of the credit universe. A quick explanation of the situation from the FT.

Great…until it isn’t (via Bloomberg 10/5/25)

Market Concentration - The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are approximately 37%+ of the index (as of 10/6/25)

Commodity Complex - details as of 9/30/25

Advance Decline on NYSE Stocks 3 Month Trailing

Advance Decline - 3 month trailing as of 10/6/25 via Bloomberg

Consumer Lending - Capital One (COF), Sallie Mae (SLM) Affirm (AFRM)

COF (Mountain), Sallie Mae (Blue), Affirm (Orange) - based to 100 YTD Chart via Bloomberg as of 10/6/2025.

Atlanta Fed GDP Now

Add Rate Cuts to this Strength! Atlanta Fed as of 10/1/2025

Wholesale Power Prices - Bloomberg Article

Adobe & Salesforce Year to Date Chart

Adobe (ADBE) mountain/white line, Salesforce (CRM) blue line (normalized to 100, YTD as of 10/6/25 via Bloomberg.

Global Industrial ABB (ABBNY)

1 Year Chart with moving averages and RSI via Bloomberg as of 10/6/25.

Brazilian Equity ETF (EWZ)

1 Year Chart with moving averages and RSI via Bloomberg as of 10/6/25.

MDU Resources (MDU) - Small Cap US Utility

Note that the chart shown in the Schwab video was not adjusted for MDU’s spinoff of ECG in fall 2024. This chart is adjusted. 1 Year Chart with moving averages and RSI via Bloomberg as of 10/6/25.

Amentum (AMTM) - Small Cap Industrial with a growing global nuclear business

1 Year Chart with moving averages and RSI via Bloomberg as of 10/6/25.

HVP Risk Dashboard favorite - stocks of above their 200 Day Moving Average. Via Bloomberg as of 10/6/25.

Seasonality of the US Stock Market - there can be some gremlins in October…

Rolling 20 year average daily returns for the S&P 500 index as calculated by HVP Research with raw data via Bloomberg as of 10/6/25.

Please Note: HVP in accounts and strategies it manages, as well as employees personally, often have positions in securities mentioned. Videos and interviews are not personal investment advice and we do not undertake any obligation to update our views in the same medium they are first shared. If you have any questions, please contact your HVP team member. Please also note that the views of guests and other panelists may not be the same views as those held by HVP.