Grading the 2025 HVP 10 Surprises
Looking Back in Advance of the 2026 List!
On December 16, 2024 we released the inaugural HVP List of 10 Surprises for 2025. While there is still some time left in 2025, we want to grade last year’s list in preparation for the upcoming release of our 2026 list. We are scoring each surprise with a maximum of 1 point, and possible scores of 0, 1/3, 1/2, 2/3, or 1 depending on how many legs of triple jump we either landed or fell flat on. As a reminder, we consider a surprise something that had a 50/50 chance, but only 1/3 of people were considering.
Let’s get to it!
1. The much-heralded Department of Government Efficiency will have a national impact.
Did it ever! DOGE struck fear in the hearts of many and changed the national conversation. While the cost savings were not as high as the lofty goals, they appear to be real. The DOGE mentality also bled over into corporate America. Score: 1/1.
2. Nvidia will face a meaningful challenger in AI chips. Investors will reassess their market share expectations.
It took awhile for this one to materialize, but recent news about Alphabet’s TPUs, Broadcom’s ASIC chips, and even AMD’s hardware have investors giving some thought to challengers and NVDA’s long term market share. Score: 1/1.
3. Ukraine will not join NATO or the EU. A demilitarized zone will emerge as continued conflict proves too costly for all sides.
As of press time, Ukraine is in neither NATO or the EU. A DMZ proved to be a humanitarian hope rather than a reality. Score: 2/3.
4. An unexpected company will emerge as a leader to help businesses implement AI tools.
Not yet. Score: 0/1.
5. Tariffs – however they are enacted - will not have consensus impacts.
It was ugly for a time in April, but from point to point, the impact has been far less negative than the consensus. Score: 1/1.
6. Corporate governance reform will help Japanese stocks, but the Bank of Japan will face challenges raising rates.
The Nikkei has outperformed the US stock market as of press time. After one hike out of the gate in January, rates in Japan have been flat at 0.50% since. There may be an additional 0.25% at the BOJ’s December 19th meeting. Score: 1/1.
7. Politicians will stay focused on China, but investors will increasingly look to India for opportunities.
As of press time, Chinese stocks have been stronger performers than Indian stocks and garnered more foreign flows. Score: 0/1.
8. The streaming wars will end with Netflix and YouTube winning. A merger will occur among at least two of the also rans.
Netflix and YouTube are still on top. Disney-FUBO-Hulu merged during the year. Right now we are in the middle of a fight for Warner Brothers between Netflix and Paramount/SkyDance. Score: 1/1.
9. The media will realize that Gen Z and millennials actually have an attention span and learn from successful long-form podcasts and interviews designed to share viewpoints rather than make soundbites.
Podcasts are still big. Legacy media still prefers “gotcha” sound-bites. Score: 1/2.
10. Private Equity ownership, the continued rise of legal gambling, and publicly traded teams will combine to make sports a more widely held asset class.
It’s been a big year for Sports deals, with stakes in the Lakers, Celtics, and NY Giants trading hands. Score: 1/1.
Final Score for 2025: 7.16/10
A high score means we were either on point or did not bring enough out of the box thinking to the endeavor. We’ll leave that to your judgement!
Stay tuned for the 2026 list later this month!
It should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful.